iPod, Swiffer, Facebook, Netflix, Uber. If I asked you to identify a few of the most disruptive, habit-changing brands and products in recent memory, there’s a good chance these would be on your list.
As the name suggests, disruptive new brands and products break completely new ground and typically answer an unmet (or unknown) consumer need through the power of innovative technology.
At Consensus Point, we specialize in identifying these kinds of completely disruptive ideas and products. Our clients tell us prediction markets simply do a better job at identifying the break-through potential of a new idea as compared to traditional survey research techniques.
Don’t let your next winner slip through the cracks. Here are six reasons why your next pioneering product should be tested with a prediction market.
Reason #1: In a prediction market we focus on judgment versus opinion. For instance, we ask “Will this new product or service be a winner? Yes or No” and the collective “bets” from engaged participants result in an overall Prediction Likelihood (probability) that your idea has legs, not to mention, rationale on “why” it can win. In the market game, you won’t see a claimed 5-point Likert scale about purchase intent, uniqueness, or appeal.
Reason #2: In a prediction market we ask individuals to only place bets on questions where they have sufficient knowledge and confidence on the topic. In other words, respondents aren’t required to linearly answer every question in a survey about topics they may or may not know about just to gain an incentive.
Reason #3: In a prediction market we intentionally ask participants to think beyond their own preferences when placing their bets. Instead, we ask them to consider the tacit knowledge they have about their friends, family, and colleagues when making their predictions. Again, this isn’t about opinion seeking; we want knowledgeable people making informed judgments.
Reason #4: In a prediction market participants have “skin in the game”. While they may not be trading their real money, they are placing wagers with virtual currency that entitles them to recognition and differential incentives when they get it right.
Reason #5: In a prediction market we rely upon core tenets of behavioral science and economics. For example, research shows that people are just more honest and better at predicting other people’s behavior than their own. Moreover, people prefer to answer questions when they have knowledge or a strong opinion on a topic. Both human behaviors fit squarely into our Huunu methodology, and our algorithm.
Reason #6: Prediction markets work. In the past few years, we’ve helped many frustrated Marketers and Insights leaders breathe new life into ideas with big potential that were previously sent back to the drawing board by misleading Top 2 Box benchmarks.
Think you have the next game-changing idea? Let’s connect. I can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.